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Abstract Wherever a loose bed of sand is subject to sufficiently strong winds, aeolian dunes form at predictable wavelengths and growth rates. As dunes mature and coarsen, however, their growth trajectories become more idiosyncratic; nonlinear effects, sediment supply, wind variability and geologic constraints become increasingly relevant, resulting in complex and history-dependent dune amalgamations. Here we examine a fundamental question: do aeolian dunes stop growing and, if so, what determines their ultimate size? Earth’s major sand seas are populated by giant sand dunes, evolved over tens of thousands of years. We perform a global analysis of the topography of these giant dunes, and their associated atmospheric forcings and geologic constraints, and we perform numerical experiments to gain insight on temporal evolution of dune growth. We find no evidence of a previously proposed limit to dune size by atmospheric boundary layer height. Rather, our findings indicate that dunes may grow indefinitely in principle; but growth depends on morphology, slows with increasing size, and may ultimately be limited by sand supply. 

Abstract Sand seas are vast expanses of Earth’s surface containing large areas of aeolian dunes—topographic patterns manifest from above-threshold winds and a supply of loose sand. Predictions of the role of future climate change for sand-sea activity are sparse and contradictory. Here we examine the impact of climate on all of Earth’s presently-unvegetated sand seas, using ensemble runs of an Earth System Model for historical and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We find that almost all of the sand seas decrease in activity relative to present-day and industrial-onset for all future SSP scenarios, largely due to more intermittent sand-transport events. An increase in event wait-times and decrease in sand transport is conducive to vegetation growth. We expect dune-forming winds will become more unimodal, and produce larger incipient wavelengths, due to weaker and more seasonal winds. Our results indicate that these qualitative changes in Earth’s deserts cannot be mitigated.